Skip to main content
Every significant business decision carries risk—and most founders make those decisions with incomplete information, under time pressure, and without a way to stress-test their thinking before committing. The Decision Simulator changes that. It lets you describe a potential decision, define the variables at play, and receive an AI-modeled projection of likely outcomes across multiple scenarios. Before you raise your prices, enter a new market, change your target customer, or pivot your entire model, you can run the scenario in the simulator and see how the AI—drawing on your business context and real-world market data—projects each path playing out. It won’t make the decision for you, but it will make sure you’re deciding with clearer eyes.

​
What You Can Simulate

The Decision Simulator is designed for consequential decisions—the kind that are hard to reverse or that carry significant upside or downside risk. Some of the most common scenarios founders simulate: Pricing decisions
  • Raising or lowering your price point
  • Switching from a one-time fee to a subscription model
  • Introducing pricing tiers or a freemium option
  • Testing value-based pricing against cost-plus pricing
Market and customer strategy
  • Targeting a different customer segment
  • Expanding from a niche market to a broader one
  • Going from local to regional or national
  • Entering an adjacent vertical
Business model changes
  • Pivoting from B2C to B2B (or vice versa)
  • Adding a services layer to a product business
  • Shifting from direct sales to a channel partner model
  • Moving from project-based work to retainer relationships
Growth and investment decisions
  • Spending budget on paid acquisition versus content marketing
  • Hiring a salesperson versus investing in product improvements
  • Raising a seed round versus staying bootstrapped longer
  • Launching a second product versus doubling down on the first

​
How the Simulation Works

The Decision Simulator uses your Founder Memory—your business model, market research, customer data, competitive landscape, and goals—as the baseline for every simulation. It then applies AI reasoning about market dynamics, business model mechanics, and historical patterns from comparable companies to model how your specified decision is likely to affect key outcomes. Each simulation returns:
  • Scenario projections: A set of likely outcome paths (optimistic, base case, pessimistic) with narrative explanations of the logic behind each
  • Key assumptions: The assumptions the simulation is built on—so you can identify which ones you agree with and which you’d challenge
  • Risk and reward mapping: The primary upside potential and the most significant risks associated with each path
  • Recommended considerations: Factors you should weigh before making the decision, based on the simulation results
The simulation doesn’t output a single answer—it outputs a structured view of the decision space so you can reason through it more clearly.

​
Running a Simulation

1

Open the Decision Simulator

Navigate to Decision Simulator from your project dashboard. Your current Founder Memory context will load automatically, giving the simulator a foundation to work from.
2

Describe your decision

In the decision input field, describe the decision you’re considering in plain language. Be specific: instead of “change my pricing,” write “raise my monthly subscription price from 29to29 to 49 and remove the free trial.” The more precisely you frame the decision, the more accurate the simulation.
3

Set key variables

Define the variables most relevant to your decision—your current revenue, customer count, churn rate, acquisition cost, or any other data points that should inform the model. You can also specify constraints, such as “I have a 3-month runway” or “I can’t reduce my team.”
4

Run the simulation

Click Run Simulation. The AI will process your decision against your business context and return a full scenario analysis, typically within 30–60 seconds.
5

Review and explore results

Read through the scenario projections, examine the key assumptions, and note the risk/reward breakdown. Use the follow-up question field to probe specific aspects of the simulation—ask the AI to explain its reasoning, challenge an assumption, or model a variation.
6

Save your simulation

Click Save Simulation to store the results in your project history. You can return to any saved simulation later to compare it against how events actually unfolded—a powerful way to calibrate your decision-making over time.

​
Reading Your Simulation Results

Each simulation result is structured to help you make a decision, not just understand the analysis. Focus on these elements: The base case scenario represents the AI’s most probable outcome given your current business context and the decision as described. Read this as the “expected value” path—not a guarantee, but the most likely trajectory if your assumptions hold. The optimistic scenario shows what the upside looks like if conditions are favorable and your execution is strong. Use this to understand the potential reward that justifies the risk. The pessimistic scenario surfaces what could go wrong. This is often the most valuable output—it forces you to confront the downside in concrete terms rather than abstract “what ifs.” Key assumptions are the variables the simulation depends on most heavily. If you disagree with an assumption, adjust it and re-run—the simulation will recalculate based on your revised inputs.

​
Saving and Comparing Simulations

You can run multiple simulations on related decisions and save them all for comparison. This is especially useful when you’re evaluating two or more options at once—for example, comparing a price increase against a market pivot to see which path looks more favorable given your current position. Saved simulations appear in your Simulation History panel within the Decision Simulator. Each saved simulation captures the full scenario output along with the date, the decision description, and the variables you set.
Run at least three variations of any major decision before committing—adjust a key variable each time (price, timeline, customer segment, budget allocation) to understand how sensitive the outcome is to each factor. If the simulation results change dramatically with a small variable change, that variable deserves extra scrutiny before you act.